Taylor Canfield and the United States had no business winning the Spain Sail Grand Prix after the opening qualifying races on Sunday. They were outside the Final places, the wind was barely cooperating and the fleet was struggling to stay on the foils. Then Canfield found a way through, won the only qualifying race his group was allowed to sail and turned what looked like a difficult weekend into one of the most important victories of the season. The United States did not just win in Valencia, they changed the championship.
The conditions had already made the day unpredictable before racing even began. The start was delayed by around 20 minutes as race officials waited for the breeze to settle and strengthen, but it never really did. With the wind often below the level needed for consistent foiling, the planned programme was reduced to one qualifying race for each group before the Final, making every start even more important.
Canfield understood that immediately. The American F50 was the only boat in the group to get onto the foils straight away. While the rest of the fleet struggled along at around 15 km/h, the United States accelerated to roughly 35 km/h and quickly built a lead that nobody could challenge. It was a brilliant piece of sailing in conditions where small decisions were having huge consequences.
The victory sent the United States into the Final alongside ROCKWOOL Denmark, joining Australia and Red Bull Italy in the four boat showdown. And that was where Canfield completed the job.
The Bonds Flying Roos took the early lead and, for long periods, looked in control. Tom Slingsby and his crew had been the strongest team in the championship and were chasing another major victory in a season that has so far belonged to Australia. The United States stayed close, eventually finding a way past the Australians, only for Slingsby to respond and take the lead back. With one manoeuvre remaining, Australia looked to have done enough.
Then Canfield went again. The American crew came in on starboard, waited for the right moment to tack and rounded the final mark with just enough of a lead to defend it on the final reach. The United States crossed the line first, with Australia 11 seconds behind.
It was their second event victory of the season, their first Final appearance since Sydney in March and, perhaps most importantly, a huge boost to their hopes of reaching the Season Championship Final in Abu Dhabi. The victory moves the United States into third place in the championship on 56 points, ahead of Artemis and Emirates GBR. With three Grands Prix still to come, the Americans have suddenly put themselves right in the conversation.
Valencia was also a weekend to remember for Red Bull Italy. The Italian team had never reached a SailGP Final before arriving in Spain and had started the weekend with a problem, suffering a hydraulic issue with their wing that caused an oil leak on Saturday morning. It did not stop them. Phil Robertson and his crew won two of Saturday's three fleet races and then produced another victory on Sunday, giving them three wins from four fleet races.
Their performance finally earned them a place in the Final. Robertson was then forced to serve a penalty after being too early for the start, but Italy fought back, recovered through the fleet and crossed the line in third, securing Red Bull Italy's first SailGP podium. For a team that had never previously made a Final, it was a major breakthrough and perhaps the clearest sign yet that the work being done behind the scenes is starting to produce results.
The irony of Valencia is that Los Gallos had looked like one of the teams most likely to win the event. Diego Botín's crew had won two races and finished second in another on Saturday, putting them at the top of their group with a five point advantage. They had the speed, the confidence and the home crowd behind them. But the reduced programme left them with no room for a mistake.
Spain started the final qualifying race at the back and could not recover. In such light conditions, there was simply not enough speed to work their way back through the fleet. Los Gallos finished last and were eliminated before the Final, ending what had looked like a genuine opportunity to deliver Spain's first SailGP victory on home waters.
It was a brutal way to end what had been an excellent weekend until that point. Spain still sit second in the championship with 68 points, but Valencia will feel like a missed opportunity. They had done the hard part on Saturday and then lost everything in one race. That is what makes SailGP so difficult to predict, especially when the wind decides how much time a team has to recover from a mistake.
Australia, meanwhile, continue to set the pace. Their second place in Valencia extended their championship lead over Spain from 14 points to 17, taking them to 85 points with three events remaining.
I said before Valencia that I would back Australia to win the championship this season. After this weekend, I still would. They did not win in Valencia, but they remain the team with the strongest position in the championship. Spain are close enough to challenge, the United States are now gaining momentum and teams such as Italy and Artemis have shown that they can cause problems when the conditions suit them.
The next stop is Geneva, followed by Dubai and then Abu Dhabi, where the season will be decided. For the United States, Valencia could be the moment their season changed direction. For Italy, it was the weekend they finally announced themselves. For Spain, it was a reminder that opportunities in SailGP do not come around very often.
Australia, for now, remain my pick to lift the championship.
