There is no question, no contest, no doubt, no discussion. Max Verstappen will win the 2025 world championship. He is in the form of his life, the car is back on the pace, and while this comeback will require Verstappen to go on an absolute tear, if there’s anyone capable of achieving such a feat, it’s the quadruple world champion. Yes, the gap is 69 points, and yes, Verstappen will have to win every remaining race in order to overturn that deficit, which, when allied to his two wins in Monza and Baku, would mean a nine-race winning streak. But need I remind you that Verstappen has done this before? Not once, but twice.
His imperious 2023 campaign saw him win a record ten grand prix in succession, and while that run came to an end in Singapore, Verstappen duly won the final seven grand prix of 2023, as well as the first two of 2024 (a run that was halted by a car failure in Melbourne, not a drop off in pace). Give Verstappen an inch, he’ll take the whole county and having ruled himself out of the title race a long time ago, the Dutchman is likely to drive with a sense of freedom, unburdened by the pressure that comes with being a leading contender for the world championship.
Granted, Verstappen’s upturn in form will have to be allied to a McLaren decline. But as we saw last time out in Baku, the reigning constructors’ champions are starting to crack. Lando Norris once again showed his vulnerability under pressure by brushing the wall in qualifying and failing to capitalise on his teammate’s misfortune. And speaking of said teammate, Oscar Piastri’s metronomic consistency has been interrupted by arguably the worst weekend of his entire career. Two separate shunts in qualifying and the race left the door wide open for the men currently lying second and third in the world championship. And while Norris failed to make hay, Verstappen certainly didn’t. Even Andrea Stella did little to hide his concern by stating that Verstappen is definitely a championship contender post-race.
He is the best driver in Formula 1, who now has the best car. If Kimi Raikkonen could overturn a 17-point deficit (equivalent to 44 points under the current system) in just two races to take the title in 2007, Verstappen can surely manage a 69-point gulf in seven races and three sprints. The grand slam in Baku was the only proof we needed; Verstappen will take the crown for a fifth consecutive season.
These Verstappen fanatics really need to cool their jets. He may be the greatest driver of his generation, but he’s still only human. Never mind the improbable run such a comeback will necessitate; title number five will not happen unless things outside of his control go his way. Even if Max were to win every remaining race, second place for Piastri will still be enough for him to secure the title. Yes, Baku showed that the Australian can make mistakes, but his last result-altering error was all the way back in Melbourne. Just because he’s had a shocker does not mean Piastri is suddenly going to spiral. If anything, the fact that Piastri went on to win four of the next five races following his disappointment in Australia is proof of the 24-year-old’s astonishing resilience. Monza and Baku are outliers that require immense straight-line speed; the McLaren MCL 38 is strongest in medium and high-speed corners. With tracks like Interlagos and Austin still to come, it's impossible to contest the claim that Norris and Piastri will have the quickest car going forward.
The point is, a complete implosion (like the one that allowed Raikkonen to pass Hamilton and Alonso in 2007) is very unlikely. All the McLaren boys have to do is bring home the podiums, and they’ll be safe from Verstappen’s advances. He has to win practically every race; they do not, and don’t forget, one bad weekend for Verstappen, one more crushing win for Piastri or Norris, and it's all over. We all love a good comeback story, and while the prospect of a three-way title fight is scintillating, we must keep our feet on the ground. Verstappen would have to pull off the biggest comeback in Formula 1 history to win this championship, and in the current climate, it really does seem like a bridge too far. Even for him.
As is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere in between. Verstappen is the in form driver, and Red Bull have found an incredible turn of pace. But whether or not this is a sign of things to come or a flash in the pan remains to be seen. Not least because Singapore is up next, a race that could determine the validity of Verstappen’s championship chances. Singapore has been something of a bogey track for Max Verstappen. It’s the only circuit on the current calendar where he is yet to take victory and was famously the only race Red Bull failed to win in 2023. Verstappen ended last year’s race a distant second, and, rather amusingly, at the time of writing, Antonio Giovinazzi has led more laps around Marina Bay than Verstappen.
Red Bull have been at their strongest on low downforce tracks, where their skinnier rear wing has allowed for greater straight-line speed. Conversely, they’ve generally been at their worst at the more technical venues. Verstappen’s 9th-place finish in Hungary is perhaps the best example. But let’s assume Verstappen defies the odds in Singapore and goes on an absolute tear for the rest of the season, both McLaren drivers will also have to trip up. Possible, but by no means certain.
Norris has proved to be nigh on unstoppable when everything aligns for him, and Piastri’s ability to shrug off pressure and go wheel to wheel with Verstappen is undeniable. What’s more, Piastri seems to think it's all business as usual. While Andrea Stella stated that Verstappen is a title contender (a statement that could also be interpreted as an attempt to divert attention away from his drivers), Piastri has said he is “not yet worried” about the Dutchman.
Realistically, the two McLarens will have to either DNF or have a couple of lacklustre weekends for Verstappen to have a chance. As the world champion himself put it, “I don’t rely on hope”. Whichever way you cut it, Piastri and Norris are still the most viable contenders for the title.
Can Verstappen pull off a stunning upset and take win the championship? Yes. Will he do it? On balance, the answer is probably no. What is certain is that he will push as hard as he can to catch the McLarens, and that Norris and Piastri will have no choice but to give it all they’ve got to keep him at bay. Whichever way you cut it, we are set for an absorbing end to this 2025 season.
